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the point that the u.s. certainly looks better than everyone else. so, the key question is, can the u.s. avoid catching the world's cold? >> that's a literal statement. the u.s. looks better than other xhis in the world but it's not a great spot to be in. with the amount of policy and political uncertainty, the u.s. -- even the u.s. recovery staying strong is certainly not a sure thing. they'll be buffeted by headwinds from abroad because china and india are not doing well. even u.s. has a rocky road ahead. >> you go through nearly every region of the world and talk about all the negatives in every part of the world. is there going to be a global recession? can you put a percentage on it? what's your estimate? >> well, right now it's political and policy uncertainty that's really the big story in virtually every economy. central banks around the world have put a floor on risk, and that's what i think is helping financial markets stay afloat. if you look at the confidence indexes i look at in my overall index, that doesn't look good at all. consumers and businesses around the world seem
. >>> then in another exclusive, u.s. bankcorp ceo on his company's earnings. >>> and trouble ahead? s&p's chief economist tells us about three big risks looming on the economic horizon and why there's no room for error. find out what they are ahead on the "closing bell." for [ male announcer ] it's a license to drive. but to you, it's a leap of faith. it means letting go... and learning to trust. ♪ all across america, thousands of teens showed state farm what it means to them. ♪ at a national event that gives new drivers the knowledge they need to take the wheel. we call it celebrate my drive. you might call it peace of mind. learn more at celebratemydrive.com. sleep train's best rest event is ending soon. don't miss your chance to get sleep train's very best mattresses at the guaranteed lowest price. plus, pay no interest for 3 years on beautyrest black, stearns & foster, serta icomfort, even tempur-pedic. and rest even better with sleep train's risk-free 100-day money back guarantee. but the best rest event ends soon at sleep train. superior service best selection, lowest price, guarantee
't assets at the firm, some of these people have private assets. >> what about bank of america? u.s. attorney in manhattan filing a civil lawsuit. based on your press release earlier this week, this is not a case you would argument against. >> not on the same principle. at this point, i would say i don't know enough about the specifics. let me make this distinction. bank of america did take over merrill lynch under federal pressure. they looked at it and were going to back away. the federal government said no. people should remember the context. this is 2008. the bush administration is desperately trying to stave off economic collapse. the validation of this whole operation is the meltdown we had when lehman brothers was allowed to fail. no one would do for lehman what bank of america did for merrill lynch and what jpmorgan-chase did forbear stearns. with regard to country wide, that was an acquisition which mr. lewis, the former ceo of -- >> right, the chairman. >> there's been a great improvement in the current ceo. i don't have the same principle. on the other hand, there were sp
? >> in the short term, i mean, i still think that we would probably be diversified with gold and we would be in u.s. names, levered for growth but also with healthy dividend yields and strong supportable businesses. you know, we like energy. it's not going anywhere. we like the u.s. refiners. i do like financials in the long term although, you know, i would argue that if the positive, if you will, effects of qe, if there are any, are diminishing. the laws of diminishing returns. i think that's also doing -- that subsiis reducing the net earnings banks are seeing in earnings and i think that's why we've seen bank stocks slow down. >> jeff sica, anything you're buying in equities? >> right now i like energy. i think energy has probably the most potential going forward. some of the agriculture companies. i'm in it to win it. i'm not just sitting on the sideline waiting in every area. there are stocks that have some potential because they're backed by things like commodities. they have the ability to increase in value. as we start to see this inflationary trend start to pick up. >> all right. gentlemen
this is a tired rally that we've been in for a while. i mean, six of the last eight sessions were down in the u.s. stock market here. but nothing has really changed in the fundamentals of the news we've been getting to warrant that. so what do you think is going on here? >> yeah, bill, it is certainly a bit of a tired rally. earnings are going to be terrible. i think we all know that. but looking out a little bit longer term, earnings estimates are starting to rise a little bit. maybe third quarter earnings will be a trough. sentiment is terrible, which is obviously a good thing for stocks. there's a lot of money on the sidelines. as we get towards the end of the year, fund managers are behind their benchmarks. they could be putting that money to work and stocks are cheap. yeah, it's a bit tired. when alcoa starts off the season next week, don't expect great guns. i think a little farther out i still like stocks here. >> you still like stocks here in terms of alternatives. i guess there aren't many, right, rob? you're seeing all this money moving into equitieequities. what do you make of technolo
fitch was coming out with a downgrade of the u.s. they've denied that. we get ready for amazon's and apple's earnings that will be out after the close. right now at 2986 on the nasdaq. the s&p is up 2 3/4 points app 1411. so what's the market looking for? we had some good economic news this morning. earnings mostly positive, though we can't seem to get a rally going. >> in today's "closing bell exchange," je ngentlemen, good have you on the program. jim, let me kick this off with you. talk to us about what you're seeing in terms of the backdrop earnings as well as economic data and how they fit into in terms of the valuation of this market here. what do you want to be doing? >> we're long-term investors, and we're fairly optimistic that this thing's going unfold fairly well. right now we're kind of held in the cross currents of earnings reports and the anticipated election, the uncertainty that goes with that. we think once we get over the election hump that the market's going to look a lot better and then -- >> this is jim moffitt speaking, right? >> yes. >> so you're optimist
economy, its impact on corporate earnings here in the u.s. alcoa disappointed last night. that set the tone for the day. the dow was down 138 points at the low of the session on pace for its first three-day session losing streak in about two weeks. as you can see right now, it's off those lows, down 114. all the major averages are now in negative territory for the month. the nasdaq has posted the biggest declines so far this this month. >> general motor, caterpillar, applied materials. what do these three companies have in common? they're just a few of the names that could suffer major blows to earnings in worries of a big slowdown in china proves to be true. even if you don't own those names, a hard landing for china could hit your bottom line. how do you protect yourself? >> bruno tells us why he's buying yum brands to protect himself in china but he's avoiding 3m. lee money son sunson says he's caterpillar. >> there's no question the growth in china is decelerating, but having said that, it's very difficult to come by growth really anywhere in the world. in our opinion, china wi
of them are coming back home. that's the situation in the u.s. and at least as much it's the situation in europe. these banks coming home is continuing to put real pressure on the european economy. >> speaking of which, bob, our markets are fixated on what's going on in europe. latest drama has to do with spain and whether they ask for aid from the ecb. there was a rumor out today that maybe they'd set up a line of credit. how do you think that resolves itself? >> well, that's the topic we've been discussing here at stanford. i think the general sense is mario draghi, the head of the ecb, has offered a pathway and bought some time. but now the key players have to act. they have to act on the reforms on their fiscal and structural side, but also in particular, spain is likely going to need to face this step. this is something that under their democratic process only they can decide. there's sensitivity with others in germany. frankly, one of the lessons in the european crisis over the past two or three years is if you get a breather and then you wait too long, the markets or something m
that beats old-fashioned economic growth. i think right now whether it's europe or the u.s., the plans to really unleash growth aren't necessarily the right plans. i don't think we're far off. i continue to look at our neighbors to the north who've created close to 900,000 jobs since the summer of '09 with e 1/10 the population. can they be doing anything more dramatic than the u.s.? >> canada has a very heavily based energy economy. >> so do we. >> the overall thought here is that you can't grow an economy just based on monetary policy. you need fiscal policy. >> no, that's right. >> investors are dying and desperate for fiscal policy. >> maria, i want to challenge the question, and i want to challenge rick's answer. we're talking about third quarter earnings here, which is something that took place between, what, july, august, and september before the fed put its policy in place. the federal reserve's thinking about its policy is it has an effect based on the cumulative amount of bonds it owns. not by the flow, but by the stock, which would suggest if there is going to be an effect
be allocating money to stocks? >> globally yes and we till xr money in u.s. stocks but i think the report is weak. business investments is flat. you have government spending rising sharply due to increased debt. that's not a growing economy as far as i'm concerned. that's a contracting economy. and i still think we're underreporting inflation in this. inflation is a bigger factor than the government admits so in an inflation area government you want to own real things but in natural resources and precious metals. >> what would dry the inflationary forces if we keep hearing from companies about a decline in demand or a slowdown in the pace of demand for their products and services. where does the inflationary pressure come from other than the fed monetary policy? >> that's where it comes from. it comes from the fed fighting the market trying to restructure the u.s. economy. you have u.s. forces being applied by market which is what the economy needs but the government is resisting that and fed is resistinging that by creating inflation, qe and already stated it will up the ante significant
of a civil fraud suit filed by the u.s. attorney in manhattan. the latest action by a federal financial fraud enforcement task force. it's slightly different than the suit we previously saw against jpmorgan involving bear sterns. this is about fha-insured mortgages that the government says that wells fargo was misrepresenting to get fha insurance on these mortgages for a period of some ten years. they say about $190 million worth of mortgages may have been misrepresented, essentially ripping off the taxpayers for this fha insurance. under the law, the government could recover triple damages. this is a $570 million suit against wells fargo. we're following it. we'll teep you posted. back to you. >> just off the lows, scott, thank you very much. we're heading toward the close, otherwise, with about 30 minutes left. the dow down 100 points at this hour. when we come back, we look at the health of wall street. new york state comptroller on the looming -- whether the looming fiscal cliff and increasing regulation are threatening wall street's comeback these days. plus, speaking of which, nearly ha
not be a huge red flag for some people, but pension partners says u.s. markets are behaving in a way that suggests either a correction or something more severe may be on the way. >> in today's "closing bell" exchange, we have pension partners and our own rick santelli. michael, the signals that the markets are sending, boy, it's been going on -- hold on, folks. let's go to hampton pearson with breaking news on the deficit. >> michelle, from the treasury department and the omb, the final results on the 2012 deficit, and here are the highlights. the fy-2012 deficit was $1.89 trillion, $207 billion less than the 2011 deficit. the 2012 deficit came in lower than previously forecasted as the treasury department and omb. $121 billion less than forecasted at the mid session review. as a percentage of gdp, says treasury and omb, the fy-2012 deficit was 7% down from 8.7% in fy-2011. the reduction from last year was due to higher receipts and lower outlays resulting in part from a stronger economy. also, a statement from treasury secretary tim geithner accompanying the release of these budget
in november. i think the big hope here is the u.s. consumer is doing better than people anticipated, wouldn't you agree? >> riddle me this. if caterpillar warns and sends it lower, why is it you have half a percent right now? >> that's my point. caterpillar has dropped one-third. it was $120 way back in march. it went straight down while the market was going up. a great leading indicator of the slowdown. now the fact that we have a very important data point, the stock is not going down on flat 2013 revenues. that was not part of the guidance before. i think it's a good sign that at least caterpillar is finding a bottom. >> let's bring matthew lloyd in here from adviser assets management. how are you investing with all of these mixed signals? >> i think it's a great opportunity for contrarian invefi investing though you have to be more patient on the equity side. there are things underestimated in the marketplace right now and that is net wealth of the consumer and how that will affect consumption going forward and underestimated the rebound in this economy and fighting the fed mantra that p
ahead of us. >> vincent, what about that? you're the chief u.s. economist there at morgan stanley. are the fed's actions going to have much impact on the economy, and what about the jobs picture right now? >> okay, first you got to recognize the head winds the fed is working against. economic growth is slowing because of uncertainties surrounding the fiscal cliff. analysts were overoptimistic about earnings, and that reality is sinking in. and the world is a risky place. so there's reasons investors lack conviction. with regard to jobs, we've heard the adp number before. i think it's kind of getting old. so i don't take much from the fact that markets didn't respond to the adp report. i think we'll get a solid number, 125-k. >> historically, still a very small number though, right? >> sure. it's one in which we're not making material progress in reducing unemployment, and it's not one the fed will be satisfied with. they told us they're setting a much higher bar for employment gains. >> let's talk about hp here, jeff. a sharp decline in the stock. one of the reasons that the dow i
this is a romney rally is a bit of a misnomer. if it were based on u.s. domestic economic policy expectations, small cap stocks, which are dependent upon domestic revenue growth, are not showing that. they're not outperforming larger cap stocks. that's number one. number two, when you look at utilities and health care consumer staples, there's been tremendous bidding up of defensiveness in the face of this resilient move. we've actually positioned, in terms of mutual fund and separate accounts, back into bonds until this hesitation and corrective period ends. >> ron, you call this a romney rally today, don't you? >> i think there's going to be no way to get around it. that's the headline of the day. if you look at the in trade probabilities of who's likely to be elected, president obama last week or so peaked at a 76% probability. this morning, it was down to 66% probability. romney moved up 10 percentage points. dan loeb on facebook had put last week out a note that you ought to buy the romney futures because they were so depressed. i don't know how the money works in that thing, but he made
around midday after a u.s. appeals court overturned a legal ruling that had initially favored apple. that stock continues lower as does the rest of the market. the dow up just five points right now at 13,350. the dow was up 95 at the day's highs. telecoms have been trading lower in a tug-of-war with energies and financials, which have generally been higher. >> more and more companies blame a china slow down for their weak profit outlooks. something we heard from big conglomerates such as berburbeb demand has weakened there. >> and yesterday, international paper ceo told us on "closing bell" he believes china is slowing far more than people think. >> i think china's growing at something far less than 7%. they've slowed down, and it feels more to us like 2 or 3%. things like electric power consumption in china is flat. that ought to be a good indicator of the level of economic activity. i do think it will come back though. >> well, he had to add that at the end. that's still 2 to 3% growth he believes in china right now. it's startling. china's slowdown reverberates through the rest o
of the u.s., but i was sent by traders, october 18th, 2008, "wall street journal" piece by brian carney that talked about anna schwartz. she didn't agree with bailing out the banks. she didn't agree the problem was liquidity. so she in many ways disagree with a lot of the aspects of qe 3 as early as 2008. >> you know, i don't know how you can say the fed is irrelevant when, in fact, the fed has been the only game in town. you don't have stimulus coming from the white house or congress. if is interesting, paul, that bernanke stressed that the fed's pledge to keep rates low until mid 2015 is not a forecast of a weak economy over the next three years. you buy that? why keep rates at these levels then if it's not an indication that we're talking about a tough situation? >> yeah, i think you're right. the economy -- the fed's not telling -- not being totally transparent. they do see a problematic economy. they do see systemic problems with employment. the problem is not liquidity. there's plenty of liquidity. there are geopolitical problems, problems in congress, problems with tax code, the
they closed the port of baltimore which means a lot of the u.s. coal exported or sent out from that port is not going anywhere for at least a day, possibly two days. and foreign cars coming into the port, not moving anywhere. similar situations happening up and down the east coast. the port of new york and new jersey, the third largest in the country, also shutting down its operations because of the severe weather, as well as port of philadelphia and port of wilmington, part of the port of delaware. an area that imports a majority of crude oil into the east coast used by refineries. the refineries don't have use for crude oil because many are running at reduced run rates. from a rainy baltimore, back to you. >> thank you very much, mary. >> brian shactman on long island due east of manhattan where many residents have evacuated. what's the latest there? >> reporter: i came out here just to give people an impression of what's going on. i lean a little -- why i have the kareem abdul-jabbar -- 60-mile-an-hour wind with sand coming at my face. it's painful. i can tell you we're now starting t
out, maria talks with the head of direct edge, which handles 10% of u.s. stock volumes that will be coming up next hour of "closing bell." stick around. up. a short word that's a tall order. up your game. up the ante. and if you stumble, you get back up. up isn't easy, and we ought to know. we're in the business of up. everyday delta flies a quarter of million people while investing billions improving everything from booking to baggage claim. we're raising the bar on flying and tomorrow we will up it yet again. >>> welcome back. the major exchanges open for trading today but will their storm related closures affect the performance of their shares? they're both publicly traded companies. we'll talk numbers today on that, on the technical side carter worth, chief market technician at oppenheimer and steve cortez with veracruz in chicago. steve, can you quantify how much money was lost due to the closure the last couple of exchanges, days of trading. we're talking about nyse, the new york stock exchange and nasdaq omx. >> bill i don't think anybody's ready to quantify that
's basically the slow down in the global economy and the slow down in the u.s. economy next year. we are looking for 1.4%, which is very near stall speed for a recession. so you really are looking at this economically. your margins are three deviations above normal. >> your favorite idea right now. >> probably mortgages. you can buy agency and nonagency mortgages, pools of mortgages that are yielding 6, 7%. >> but they're high risk? >> short duration. they're not that high risk. delinquencies and defaults go up by a factor of two, you're still protected. >> all right. thank you. only 14 minutes to go before the closing bell. nasdaq's been negative for a while. >>> president obama is out on the campaign trail trying to score points he probably wishes he scored at wednesday's debate. >> governor romney plans to let wall street run wild again, but he's going to bring down the hammer on "sesame street." it makes perfect sense. >> why are we subsidizining "sesame street" when elmo alone makes millions? >>> and later, the greatest swimmer ever may now be known for another sport. look at th
think one of the things that quantitative easing in the u.s. and europe is going to do is ease currencies. >> so the multinational dividend stock, i agree. johnson & johnson, i know it's boring and the stock hasn't done anything, but it's tough to beat. they have a aaa balance sheet. >> everybody is looking for yield. thanks so much, guys. >> we head toward the close. about 14 minutes left here. off the lows, the dow is virtually unchanged. >> we all new something was wrong with google's premature earnings release when we saw a line reserved for a quote from the ceo. >> guess what? now pending larry has gone viral. it's a tweet count. plus, we'll hear from top google executives on this debacle when we bring you the company's conference call. that comes up live at 4:30 p.m. eastern time. do not go anywhere. stay tuned. smart comes with 8 airbags, a crash management system and the world's only tridion safety cell which can withstand over three and a half tons. small in size. big on safety. but they haven't experienced extra strength bayer advanced aspirin. in fact, in a recent su
and maria again. as you know, small businesses' optimism for the future u.s. economic situation has deteriorated fairly significantly in the last six months. it's interesting, however, small businesses are say -- more than two-thirds are saying they still feel moderately successful. i think the answer to your question is there's tremendous uncertainty out there. small businesses and their owners pay close attention to the stalemate in washington. they're concerned, as the survey showed, about regulations. and they're concerned about health care costs as well as the uncertainty of health care reform. >> so the uncertainty of health care reform is something i want to get to. how significant is that expense for small business? what we keep hearing is that small business, because of the uncertainty, they don't know what their tax rates will look like. they don't know whether spending programs will be cut and how that will impact their business. and they are upset about the rise in their expense side of the business because of health care. how significant is that expense? >> well, i can'
overseas, very strong day. i think there will be some bid underneath the u.s. mark as well. volume will be the real question. i think there will be a lot of pent-up demand to trade. there's a lot of ipos that were delayed. i think there were six that were supposed to come this week. over $3 billion of commercial mortgage-backed securities that were ready to come this week. i think it was a real pent-up amount of supply ready to hit the market. i think the demand will be there. really, we just pushed this out a little bit. >> that's a great point. anton, what about the end of the month situation? the fact that we are at the end of the month. we typically see positioning in terms of portfolios because of the end of the month. how does that play into things? what are you expecting? >> yeah, i think that people haven't had a chance to rebalance. you've really had a couple of days taken out of, you know, people's game plans. everyone's looking at their portfolios last week saying what do i want to do next week in terms of positioning. i do expect quite a bit of volume. since we've had a
Search Results 0 to 22 of about 23